The biggest-selling drug in 2018 will be…

EvaluatePharma, a UK based company specializing in pharma and biotech analysis has been gazing long and hard into its crystal ball.

Having scrutinized the world’s leading 3,500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies they have come up with a list of what, they believe, will be the top 10 selling drugs in 2018.

  1. Januvia       (diabetes) – $9.7 billion
  2. Humira        (arthritis) – $8.2 billion
  3. Avastin        (cancer) – $7.5 billion
  4. Enbrel          (arthritis)  – $7.2 billon
  5. Revlimid     (myelodysplastic syndrome) – $6.75 billion
  6. Prevnar 13  (pneumococcal vaccine) – $6.72 billion
  7. Rituxan         (cancer) – $6.3 billion
  8. Lantus           (diabetes) – $5.9 billion
  9. Remicade     (arthritis) – $5.8 billion
  10. Advair            (COPD)  – $5.7 billion

Surprised?  No conventional molecules, no cholesterol lowering agents, no blood pressure meds and not a single new drug among the top ten.  However, they predict the #11 best seller will be GS-7977 – the much anticipated oral hepatitis C drug from Gilead Sciences .

Not so surprising, given the obesity epidemic sweeping the western world that 2 of the front runners are diabetes drugs. Likewise, given the globally aging population – 3 are for arthritis.

#5 may be a surprise to many. Few people had ever heard of myelodysplastic syndrome before ABC news anchor Robin Roberts announced last week that she has the disease.  Still, it’s predicted number 5 status doesn’t mean that an epidemic is expected – it’s still relatively rare with only 10,000 or so new cases detected each year. Its lofty status on the list is more to do with the price. It costs a staggering $10,000 or so for a 28 day supply of the pills.

Other predictions from the EvaluatePharma World Preview 2018 report:

  • Worldwide prescription drug sales are forecast to total $885bn in 2018 an increase of 3.1% from 2011
  • Over $290bn of pharmaceutical sales are at risk from patent expirations between now and 2018
  • Pfizer was the top company for prescription drug sales in 2011, but  Novartis will top the list by 2018
  • Global pharmaceutical R&D spend forecast will grow by 1.5% per year to $149bn in 2018
  • Anti-coagulants (blood thinners) are set to record highest growth of major therapy categories to 2018

Interesting stuff. But the problem with such long term predictive models is that they are but a snapshot  trying to project out six years.

In reality, life is a movie, with a frequently changing plot. For example if J&J’s canagliflozin can reduce obesity and improve blood sugar levels better than Januvia then the projected No. 1 ranking is suspect, at best.

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